We often come across situations in the U.S. where managers are strongly motivated to avoid all risk (even small risks associated with potentially large benefits) and situations overseas where managers want to evaluate the risks and rewards. We believe the problem in the U.S. lies not so much with the individual managers as with societal expectations, the structure of their job and the way they are rewarded. The manager of a transportation authority must keep those buses and trains running despite increasing fuel costs and decreasing fares and subsidies. He/she is rewarded for implementing a glistening new light rail system and no one cares (or knows) if most of the passengers come from the reduced bus system. Were the light rail system to have a hiccup (delayed opening or budget overrun), the manager’s head may have to roll. No wonder the manager has no time, budget or inclination to look at an innovative system that has few successful operating examples he/she can kick the tires on.
Fortunately for personal rapid transit (PRT or Podcars), there are niche applications where small systems can be effective, such as airports, universities and other campus-like situations. PRT can (and is) make its debut and prove itself in these small applications. Transit managers will then see that it works and be emboldened to apply it in broader situations. Or will they? After a disastrous beginning, the Morgantown PRT system has been running very successfully (substantially beating conventional guideway transit by many measures) for over thirty years (the New York Times characterized it as “A White Elephant Turned Into a Transit Workhorse”) yet few transit managers seem interested in whether its success can be repeated without repeating its teething problems.
Without successful niche applications, PRT in the U.S. would be doomed until overseas applications have been operating successfully for twenty or more years. With successful niche applications, we may be able to stay close on the heels (say ten years behind) of our foreign friends.
How can a society be so risk averse and yet simultaneously accept extreme danger every day in their cars (we kill about as many Americans on the roads each year as were killed in the entire Vietnam War)? If we cannot learn to balance risk and reward, how are we going to ever regain the lead in transportation or any other field where we have lost it?
